BREAK 80
the record against a 5–7 index · 7 watch rounds, 7 linked · as of 2026-10-14
The research says the strokes between a 13 and a 5–7 index are mostly greens hit and up-and-downs, and they arrive as double bogeys. Fairways and driving distance are not separators. This page applies that to the record: each area’s own number, the 13-band and 5-band numbers beside it with their sources, and the gap priced in strokes a round with the arithmetic shown.
- a 79 is
- 4.9–6.9
- index
- 13.7 → ~6.5
- priced in the ledger
- 6.9
- a 5 index breaks 80
- 40.7%
differential at your 5 rated SF tees · 14+ at Lincoln
7.2 strokes a round, by the index
strokes a round, four areas, not additive
of rounds — two in five, not most
Where the strokes are
Strokes a round between your number and the 5 band, by area. The areas overlap — a chunked chip is a short-game miss and a double — so the bar is an ordering, and the blue tick is the index gap it should roughly agree with.
The opportunities
In order of strokes. Each card: your number on a scale with the two bands marked, what the provider counted beside what the record counted, the price and its arithmetic, one move on the course and one on the range, and the number that retires it.
- 01
Chip on, one putt
4.2 strokes a round- you
- 14% · n 43 · watch + card, 7 linked rounds
- bands
- 13: 35% · 5: 47% · higher is better
- price
- 12.8 missed greens a round × (47% − 14%) = 4.2
- on course
- Putt from the fringe. From rough, pick the club that lands on the green and runs — the lob wedge reaches the green 66% of the time from inside 50 yd. Then the 4–8 footer gets a full routine.
- practice
- Two 25-minute sessions a week from rough, 15–35 yd, scored by leaves inside 6 ft (8 of 23 measurable so far), each ending with twenty putts from 4–8 ft. External cue: the landing spot, not the hands.
- retired
- up-and-downs at 35% over 20 linked rounds
definitions · sources · medium confidence
- you count
- the last heard shot started inside 50 yd from off the green and reached it, then the card shows one putt or none — any score on the hole
- 13 counts
- Holed in two or fewer from off the green, any score on the hole — Shot Scope users with a 15 handicap, tracked rounds — Shot Scope — 15 handicap Law of Averages · checked 2026-09-29
- 5 counts
- Holed in two or fewer from off the green, any score on the hole — Shot Scope users with a 5 handicap, tracked rounds — Shot Scope — 5 handicap Law of Averages · checked 2026-09-29
- 02
Greens from 100–175
2 strokes a round- you
- 5.3 greens/round · n 20 · scorecards, last 20
- bands
- 13: 5.3 greens/round · 5: 7.6 greens/round · higher is better
- price
- (7.6 − 5.3 greens) × (1 − 14% saved) = 2
- on course
- One more club. 44% of your classified misses from 50–200 yd stopped short of the hole; outside 140 yd the target is the middle of the green, never the pin.
- practice
- Random-order approaches 100–175 yd, one ball per target, club changes every swing, scored by "on the green" not by proximity. From 125–200 the record is 12 of 62.
- retired
- 6+ greens a round over 20 rounds
definitions · sources · medium confidence
- you count
- greens in regulation per round from Grint's own chart, last 20 charted rounds (positional, not dated)
- 13 counts
- Greens in regulation per 18 holes, average across all rounds of players with an 11–13 index — Arccos users by handicap band (Lou Stagner, Arccos Data Insights Lead) — Golf.com — GIR by handicap (Stagner table) · checked 2026-09-29
- 5 counts
- Greens in regulation per 18 holes, average across all rounds of players with a 5–7 index — Arccos users by handicap band (Lou Stagner, Arccos Data Insights Lead) — Golf.com — GIR by handicap (Stagner table) · checked 2026-09-29
- 03
Lag speed
0.4 strokes a round- you
- 8.1 % of holes · n 359 · scorecards, last 20
- bands
- 13: 10% · 5: 6% · lower is better
- price
- (8.1% − 6%) × 18 holes = 0.4
- on course
- Outside 20 ft every putt is a speed putt: pick the 3-ft circle past the hole, never the line. The miss that three-putts is short.
- practice
- The 20/30/40 ft ladder, every first putt inside 3 ft, ten minutes at the end of each session — not a session of its own.
- retired
- three-putts under 6% of holes over 20 cards
definitions · sources · high confidence
- you count
- holes with three or more putts, last 20 full 18-hole cards
- 13 counts
- Share of holes with three or more putts — Shot Scope users with a 15 handicap, tracked rounds — Shot Scope — 15 handicap Law of Averages · checked 2026-09-29
- 5 counts
- Share of holes with three or more putts — Shot Scope users with a 5 handicap, tracked rounds — Shot Scope — 5 handicap Law of Averages · checked 2026-09-29
- 04
Contact off the tee
0.3 strokes a round- you
- 2.4 per round · n 94 · watch, 7 rounds
- bands
- 13: 3.3 per round · 5: 2 per round · lower is better
- price
- (2.4 − 2 a round) × (+1.71 on those holes − +1.03 on the rest) = 0.3
- on course
- Driver only where there is 60 yd of playable width; otherwise the 3 Hybrid, which flew 175+ on 8 of 9 tee balls at Lincoln. Distance is not the problem — the driver goes 251 when struck.
- practice
- The first blocked 15 minutes of every range session is low-point work: a line an inch behind the ball, strike the ground in front of it, half swings before full. No driver until the irons brush the line ten times running.
- retired
- 2 troublesome tee balls a round or fewer over 10 watch rounds
definitions · sources · medium confidence
- you count
- par-4/5 tee balls that were a driver, wood or hybrid under 170 yd, finished in a bunker, or forced a recovery next — a lay-up with an iron is not one
- 13 counts
- Tee shots ending in a lost ball, hazard, trees or a forced recovery, per round — Shot Scope users who score in the 80s (a scoring band, not a handicap band) — Shot Scope — The Shot Scope Six: benchmarks for success · checked 2026-09-29
- 5 counts
- Tee shots ending in a lost ball, hazard, trees or a forced recovery, per round — Shot Scope users who score in the 70s (a scoring band, not a handicap band) — Shot Scope — The Shot Scope Six: benchmarks for success · checked 2026-09-29
- 05
Doubles or worse
unpriced- you
- 5.7 per round · n 126 · watch + card, 7 linked rounds
- bands
- 13: 4.7 per round · 5: 1.4 per round · lower is better
- price
- the doubles carry 87 of 143 strokes over par on 126 holes — an outcome of the four areas above, not a fifth
- on course
- A double is a mishit tee ball, a short-sided miss, or a chunked chip, then a three-putt. Bogey is fine; the second dropped stroke is the one to refuse — take the medicine shot sideways, chip to the fat of the green, two-putt.
- practice
- None. This line moves when the four above move.
- retired
- 1.44 doubles a round or fewer over 10 linked rounds
definitions · sources · medium confidence
- you count
- holes scored two or more over par — score from the card, par from the watch, linked rounds only
- 13 counts
- Holes scored double bogey or worse, per 18 holes — Shot Scope users by handicap (data shared with Golf Insider UK) — Golf Insider UK — Birdies, bogeys and doubles by handicap (Shot Scope data) · checked 2026-09-29
- 5 counts
- Holes scored double bogey or worse, per 18 holes — Shot Scope users by handicap (data shared with Golf Insider UK) — Golf Insider UK — Birdies, bogeys and doubles by handicap (Shot Scope data) · checked 2026-09-29
37 of 126 watch holes end their last heard shot exactly on the pin — the watch has no putts, so that pin is where the shot stopped. Those shots are excluded from every leave and short-of-the-hole call above.
On the course, for nothing
Decisions with a sourced number behind them and no practice cost. The record’s own figure sits beside each so the rule is about you, not about golfers.
- 01
Take one more club into the green. The amateur miss is short, and a long miss costs less than a bunker.
- you
- 44.2 % of misses · n 86 — approaches from 50–200 yd that missed the green and stopped short of the hole, of the misses the watch could classify
- source
- 54% — Share of approach shots from beyond 50 yd that finish short of the green — Shot Scope — 5 stats to track to improve your game
- 02
Driver only with 60 yd of playable width from rough to rough. Otherwise the 3 Hybrid — it starts a hole as well as the driver does and mishits less.
- you
- 2.4 per round · n 94 — par-4/5 tee balls that were a driver, wood or hybrid under 170 yd, finished in a bunker, or forced a recovery next — a lay-up with an iron is not one
- source
- 2 per round — Tee shots ending in a lost ball, hazard, trees or a forced recovery, per round — Shot Scope — The Shot Scope Six: benchmarks for success
- 03
Outside 140 yd the target is the middle of the green. Nobody hits many greens from 175; the miss that costs is the short-sided one.
- you
- 19.4 % greens · n 62 — approaches from 125–200 yd that finished on the green
- source
- 140 yd — Distance beyond which DECADE's rule is to aim at the middle of the green rather than the pin (a rule, not a measurement) — Wicked Smart Golf — DECADE golf review
- 04
Miss on the fat side, away from sand. A bunker approach costs half a stroke more than a fairway lie.
- you
- 6.7 % of approaches · n 135 — approaches from 50–200 yd that finished in a bunker
- source
- 0.5 strokes — Extra strokes to hole out from a greenside bunker versus the fairway after an approach from 50–150 yd (4.00 vs 3.46) — Shot Scope — Is there such a thing as a good miss?
- 05
Putt from the fringe. The lob wedge is the wrong default from inside 25 yd.
- you
- 65.7 % reached the green · n 67 — shots started inside 50 yd from off the green that finished on it
- source
- 0.2 strokes — Strokes saved by putting rather than chipping from 15–25 ft of fringe (reported 0.15–0.25; the midpoint is stored) — Arccos — Putting from off the green
- 06
On par 5s advance the ball. Laying up to a number costs 0.6 a hole; the threshold that matters is getting the third shot inside 175.
- you
- 1.0 over par per hole · n 24 — mean strokes over par on par 5s
- source
- 0.6 strokes/hole — Extra strokes on a par 5 when laying up versus advancing the second shot — Shot Scope — Par 5s: go for it in two vs a lay-up
Is it moving
The last 20 charted rounds, oldest to newest, with the 5-band benchmark as the blue line. Positional, not dated: Grint’s charts skip nine-hole rounds.
This week
The week of 2026-09-29, measured against the newest capture — a goal stays open until the record outruns its week, then the record says achieved or missed. Goals are about the next round, not the range.
- missedup-and-downs in the week's first watch round
now 0 holes · target 3 holes · over 6 chances
Chip on, one putt — the biggest line in the ledger (4.1 strokes a round): you get up and down 15% of the time, a 13 index 35%, a 5 index 47%. Three of the usual six or seven chances in the next watch round. Putt from the fringe; from rough, the club that lands on the green and runs; then a full routine on the 4–8 footer.
- achievedgreens in regulation in the week's first round
now 6 greens · target 5 greens · over 18 holes
Greens from 100–175 (2.1 strokes a round): 5.1 a round now, a 13 index 5.3, a 5 index 7.6. Five greens in the next linked round. One more club — 45% of your classified misses stop short of the hole — and outside 140 yd the target is the middle of the green.
- misseddoubles or worse in the week's first round
now 4 holes · target at most 2 holes · over 18 holes
Doubles or worse: 6.2 a round over the five watch rounds, a 5 index 1.44. Two or fewer in the next linked round. Bogey is fine; the second dropped stroke is the one to refuse — sideways out of trouble, chip to the fat of the green, two-putt. All three goals need the round on the watch AND its Grint card captured; the 3 Hybrid range block is dropped, not carried — a club measured at a monitor is a number on the bag page, not a stroke.
The weeks before
- 2026-09-16achieved: One more round with the watch on. At 5 the short-game and lie findings switch on and the number that matters most gets printed: 0 up-and-downs in 33 chances over the 4 rounds heard so far (Harding 08-20, Presidio 08-22 and 09-08, Olympic Lake 09-15). · missed: Carried from 09-09, still 0 swings on file. It started 15 holes over the 4 watch rounds and 3 of those tee shots went under 65 yd. The block is a contact block first and a yardage block second: 15 usable swings, low point in front of the ball, the R50 keeps score.
- 2026-09-09missed: One R50 block, 15+ usable 3 Hybrid swings. It started 7 of 18 holes at Presidio on 09-08 (221 yd median on the course) and has no monitor number — the most-used unmeasured club in the bag. · missed: Two 20-minute lag-speed sessions (20/30/40 ft ladder, every first putt inside 3 ft) and one round with at most one three-putt. Speed, not line: 80% of amateur three-putts start with a first putt more than 5 ft short or long.
For the bag page: 24 range tasks
Ranked by what a bucket of balls would tell the bag page — unmeasured clubs first. This list fills in the yardage chart; it does not set the week. A club measured at a monitor is a number on the bag, not a stroke on the card.
- 01
The 3 Hybrid has never been measured
blind spot- why
- Callaway UW is in the bag at 19° and has not one shot on file across 8 sessions. Both gaps beside it are guesses about a club nobody has hit at a monitor. AutoShot has meanwhile heard 44 full swings with it on the course — median 216 yd point-to-point — a number to check the monitor against, not a substitute for it.
- do
- Hit 21 in one block, the same as any other club.
- done
- 15 usable shots with the 3 Hybrid.
- 02
The 3 Iron has never been measured
blind spot- why
- TaylorMade P790 (2021) is in the bag at 19° and has not one shot on file across 8 sessions. Both gaps beside it are guesses about a club nobody has hit at a monitor.
- do
- Hit 21 in one block, the same as any other club.
- done
- 15 usable shots with the 3 Iron.
- 03
The 4 Iron has never been measured
blind spot- why
- TaylorMade P790 (2021) is in the bag at 21° and has not one shot on file across 8 sessions. Both gaps beside it are guesses about a club nobody has hit at a monitor.
- do
- Hit 21 in one block, the same as any other club.
- done
- 15 usable shots with the 4 Iron.
- 04
The Lob Wedge has never been measured
blind spot- why
- Titleist Vokey is in the bag at 58° and has not one shot on file across 8 sessions. Both gaps beside it are guesses about a club nobody has hit at a monitor.
- do
- Hit 21 in one block, the same as any other club.
- done
- 15 usable shots with the Lob Wedge.
- 05
Nothing is measured above 195 yd
blind spot- why
- 5 Iron at 195 yd is the longest club with enough data. Driver is in the ledger but below the threshold, so every gap above 195 yd is invisible — not wide, invisible. AutoShot has meanwhile heard 63 full swings with it on the course — median 258 yd point-to-point — a number to check the monitor against, not a substitute for it.
- do
- Hit 20 each of Driver, plus anything else you carry longer than a 5 Iron.
- done
- Every club longer than the 5 Iron has 15+ usable shots.
- 06
Measure the Driver
coverage- why
- 0 usable shots of 1 hit. Below 15, so it is suppressed and both gaps beside it read "not shown". AutoShot has meanwhile heard 63 full swings with it on the course — median 258 yd point-to-point — a number to check the monitor against, not a substitute for it.
- do
- Hit about 21 in one block — 15 more usable, plus 3 warmup and a mishit or two.
- done
- 15 usable shots.
- 07
Settle what the Pitching Wedge actually carries
consistency- why
- Measured across 3 sessions whose medians differ by 16.8 yd. Its band is partly day-to-day drift, so the median is an average of two different versions of you.
- do
- Hit 20 in a single session, full swings only, and don't mix partial shots into the block.
- done
- Two sessions agree within 10 yd.
- 08
Settle what the 8 Iron actually carries
consistency- why
- Measured across 2 sessions whose medians differ by 14.1 yd. Its band is partly day-to-day drift, so the median is an average of two different versions of you.
- do
- Hit 20 in a single session, full swings only, and don't mix partial shots into the block.
- done
- Two sessions agree within 10 yd.
- 09
31.1 yd hole between 5 Iron and 6 Iron
gapping- why
- Their medians are 31.1 yd apart. Any shot landing in that window needs a swing you have not measured.
- do
- Build a repeatable partial 5 Iron for the middle of the gap, measure it as its own block, and label the block in data/wedge-blocks.json so the matrix can retire this.
- done
- A measured shot type covers the middle of the window.
- 10
Settle what the Sand Wedge actually carries
consistency- why
- Measured across 2 sessions whose medians differ by 10.8 yd. Its band is partly day-to-day drift, so the median is an average of two different versions of you.
- do
- Hit 20 in a single session, full swings only, and don't mix partial shots into the block.
- done
- Two sessions agree within 10 yd.
- 11
Settle what the 6 Iron actually carries
consistency- why
- Measured across 3 sessions whose medians differ by 10.3 yd. Its band is partly day-to-day drift, so the median is an average of two different versions of you.
- do
- Hit 20 in a single session, full swings only, and don't mix partial shots into the block.
- done
- Two sessions agree within 10 yd.
- 12
A three-putt every 7 holes
scoring- why
- 372 of 2770 recorded holes took three or more putts, and the 143 rounds that logged putting average 35.6 putts — the largest single line item in the score, and the only one the scorecards alone can see. The last 18 months say the same thing: one in 11 over 233 recent holes. The R50 screen agrees: 11 three-putts in 112 sim holes (one in 10).
- do
- Lag drill before every round: ten putts from 30+ feet, scored by finishing inside a flagstick's length, not by holing anything.
- done
- A capture with three-putts under one hole in 10.
- 13
Par 3s are the screen's leak
scoring- why
- Over 38 par-3 holes on the R50 screen the scoring runs +0.76 a hole, against +0.35 across 20 par 5s — and a par 3 is nothing but one iron and the putter. Screen numbers: the launch is measured, the flight is modelled, so this speaks about club delivery, not wind.
- do
- An iron-precision block played as nine screen par 3s: three flags between 150 and 200 yd, scored by finishing inside ten yards of the flag — not by contact.
- done
- A capture whose screen par-3 mean sits within 0.3 strokes-over-par of the par-5 mean.
- 14
6 of 6 wedge-matrix cells have never been measured
wedge matrix- why
- Every measured wedge has a full-swing number and nothing below it: Pitching Wedge (half, three-quarter), Gap Wedge (half, three-quarter), Sand Wedge (half, three-quarter). Between a full wedge and a chip lives most of the scoring window, and the ledger cannot see a partial's length — only a labeled block can say what a half swing carries.
- do
- Pick one wedge and one length. Call the carry before every swing, hit about 13 in a single block, then record the block in data/wedge-blocks.json — session, club, swing, first and last shot time. Unlabeled, the block buys nothing.
- done
- Every partial cell of a measured wedge holds at least one labeled block.
- 15
The 5 Iron finishes 18 yd right
consistency- why
- Median miss +17.6 yd, 80% band 38 yd wide — but from a single session, so this may be one bad day rather than a tendency.
- do
- Hit 20 more on a different day before reading anything into it.
- done
- A second session confirms or clears it.
- 16
The 7 Iron finishes 14 yd right
consistency- why
- Median miss +14.0 yd, 80% band 38 yd wide — but from a single session, so this may be one bad day rather than a tendency.
- do
- Hit 20 more on a different day before reading anything into it.
- done
- A second session confirms or clears it.
- 17
23.5 yd hole between Pitching Wedge and Gap Wedge
gapping- why
- Their medians are 23.5 yd apart. Any shot landing in that window needs a swing you have not measured.
- do
- Build a repeatable partial Pitching Wedge for the middle of the gap, measure it as its own block, and label the block in data/wedge-blocks.json so the matrix can retire this.
- done
- A measured shot type covers the middle of the window.
- 18
The 6 Iron finishes 12 yd right
consistency- why
- Median miss +11.5 yd, 80% band 32 yd wide across sessions that agree, so it is a tendency rather than a bad day.
- do
- Worth a lesson or a face-to-path check — the number is consistent enough to be real.
- done
- Median miss inside 8 yd of the target line.
- 19
18.4 yd hole between 8 Iron and 9 Iron
gapping- why
- Their medians are 18.4 yd apart. Any shot landing in that window needs a swing you have not measured.
- do
- Build a repeatable partial 8 Iron for the middle of the gap, measure it as its own block, and label the block in data/wedge-blocks.json so the matrix can retire this.
- done
- A measured shot type covers the middle of the window.
- 20
16.5 yd hole between 9 Iron and Pitching Wedge
gapping- why
- Their medians are 16.5 yd apart. Any shot landing in that window needs a swing you have not measured.
- do
- Build a repeatable partial 9 Iron for the middle of the gap, measure it as its own block, and label the block in data/wedge-blocks.json so the matrix can retire this.
- done
- A measured shot type covers the middle of the window.
- 21
No club data on 46 of 301 shots
data- why
- 2026-07-02, 2026-08-02 recorded the ball but not the club — smash factor and club speed are both missing. Those shots skip the smash-based mishit test, so part of the ledger is filtered more loosely than the rest.
- do
- Check the club tracking sticker and the monitor's placement before the next session — club speed, smash, attack angle and path all depend on it.
- done
- New sessions record club data.
- 22
6 Iron and 7 Iron do the same job
gapping- why
- Only 4.1 yd apart. One of the two is redundant, which is where a hole elsewhere in the bag comes from. The bag has them 4.0° apart, so they were built to be different clubs.
- do
- The heads are not the problem — hit them back to back in one block and watch the strike on the 6 Iron.
- done
- The two sit more than 8 yd apart, or one leaves the bag.
- 23
7 Iron and 8 Iron do the same job
gapping- why
- Only 2.7 yd apart. One of the two is redundant, which is where a hole elsewhere in the bag comes from. The bag has them 4.5° apart, so they were built to be different clubs.
- do
- The heads are not the problem — hit them back to back in one block and watch the strike on the 7 Iron.
- done
- The two sit more than 8 yd apart, or one leaves the bag.
- 24
Gap Wedge and Sand Wedge do the same job
gapping- why
- Only 6.7 yd apart. One of the two is redundant, which is where a hole elsewhere in the bag comes from. The bag has them 4.0° apart, so they were built to be different clubs.
- do
- The heads are not the problem — hit them back to back in one block and watch the strike on the Gap Wedge.
- done
- The two sit more than 8 yd apart, or one leaves the bag.
Read from
- Scorecards
- 175 dated scorecards, 2021-07-08 to 2026-10-14, from the Grint export bundle, captured 2026-10-15
- Range
- 301 shots over 8 Garmin R50 sessions, 2026-07-02 to 2026-08-14
- Shots on course
- 335 AutoShot shots over 7 of 15 rounds (the rest are R50 simulator rounds, which carry no shots), from the Garmin export bundle, captured 2026-10-19
Benchmarks from data/benchmarks.json — every entry a source URL, a population and the provider’s definition; pnpm data:validate refuses one without.